Bayesian cross validation for gravitational-wave searches in pulsar-timing array data

Gravitational-wave data analysis demands sophisticated statistical noise models in a bid to extract highly obscured signals from data. In Bayesian model comparison, we choose among a landscape of models by comparing their marginal likelihoods. However, this computation is numerically fraught and can be sensitive to arbitrary choices in the specification of parameter priors. In Bayesian cross validation, we characterize the fit and predictive power of a model by computing the Bayesian posterior of its parameters in a training dataset, and then use that posterior to compute the averaged likelihood of a different testing dataset. The resulting cross-validation scores are straightforward to compute; they are insensitive to prior tuning; and they penalize unnecessarily complex models that overfit the training data at the expense of predictive performance. In this article, we discuss cross validation in the context of pulsar-timing-array data analysis, and we exemplify its application to simulated pulsar data (where it successfully selects the correct spectral index of a stochastic gravitational-wave background), and to a pulsar dataset from the NANOGrav 11-year release (where it convincingly favors a model that represents a transient feature in the interstellar medium). We argue that cross validation offers a promising alternative to Bayesian model comparison, and we discuss its use for gravitational-wave detection, by selecting or refuting models that include a gravitational-wave component.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures. Submitted to MNRA

Catching Gravitational Waves With A Galaxy-sized Net Of Pulsars

Until recently, the only way to observe the Universe was from light received by telescopes. But we are now able to measure gravitational waves, which are ripples in the fabric of the Universe predicted by Albert Einstein. If two very dense objects (like black holes) orbit each other closely, they warp space and send out gravitational waves. For black holes that are similar in mass to the Sun, scientists use the LIGO detector on Earth. But for the biggest black holes in the Universe (billions of times more massive than the Sun), scientists monitor a net of rapidly-spinning neutron stars (called pulsars) across the Milky Way. Any gravitational wave passing by will change how long radio signals from these pulsars take to get to Earth. The NANOGrav Collaboration monitored 34 of these pulsars over 11 years, in an attempt to detect gravitational waves from giant black holes

Resilience amongst Australian Aboriginal youth: an ecological analysis of factors associated with psychosocial functioning in high and low family risk contexts

Abstract: We investigate whether the profile of factors protecting psychosocial functioning of high risk exposed Australian Aboriginal youth are the same as those promoting psychosocial functioning in low risk exposed youth. Data on 1,021 youth aged 12–17 years were drawn from the Western Australian Aboriginal Child Health Survey, a population representative survey of the health and well-being of Aboriginal children, their families and community contexts. A person-centered approach was used to define four groups of youth cross-classified according to level of risk exposure (high/low) and psychosocial functioning (good/poor). Multivariate logistic regression was used to model the influence of individual, family, cultural and community factors on psychosocial outcomes separately for youth in high and low family-risk contexts. Results showed that in high family risk contexts, prosocial friendship and low area-level socioeconomic status uniquely protected psychosocial functioning. However, in low family risk contexts the perception of racism increased the likelihood of poor psychosocial functioning. For youth in both high and low risk contexts, higher self-esteem and self-regulation were associated with good psychosocial functioning although the relationship was non-linear. These findings demonstrate that an empirical resilience framework of analysis can identify potent protective processes operating uniquely in contexts of high risk and is the first to describe distinct profiles of risk, protective and promotive factors within high and low risk exposed Australian Aboriginal youth

The computation of C-C and N-N bond dissociation energies for singly, doubly, and triply bonded systems

The bond dissociation energies (D sub e) of C2H2, C2H4, C2H6, N2, N2H2, and N2H4 are studied at various levels of correlation treatment. The convergence of D sub e with respect to the one particle basis is studied at the single reference modified coupled-pair functional (MCPF) level. At all levels of correlation treatment, the errors in the bond dissociation energies increase with the degree of multiple bond character. The multireference configuration interaction (MRCI) D sub e values, corrected for an estimate of higher excitations, are in excellent agreement with those determined using the size extensive averaged coupled pair functional (ACPF) method. It was found that the full valence complete active space self consistent field (CASSCF)/MRCI calculations are reproduced very well by MRCI calculations based on a CASSCF calculation that includes in the active space only those electrons involved in the C-C or N-N bonds. To achieve chemical accuracy (1 kcal/mole) for the D sub e values of the doubly bonded species C2H4 and N2H2 requires one particle basis sets including up through h angular momentum functions (l = 5) and a multireference treatment of electron correlation: still higher levels of calculation are required to achieve chemical accuracy for the triply bonded species C2H2 and N2

Constraining alternative theories of gravity using pulsar timing arrays

The opening of the gravitational wave window by ground-based laser interferometers has made possible many new tests of gravity, including the first constraints on polarization. It is hoped that within the next decade pulsar timing will extend the window by making the first detections in the nano-Hertz frequency regime. Pulsar timing offers several advantages over ground-based interferometers for constraining the polarization of gravitational waves due to the many projections of the polarization pattern provided by the different lines of sight to the pulsars, and the enhanced response to longitudinal polarizations. Here we show that existing results from pulsar timing arrays can be used to place stringent limits on the energy density of longitudinal stochastic gravitational waves. Paradoxically however, we find that longitudinal modes will be very difficult to detect due to the large variance in the pulsar-pulsar correlation patterns for these modes. Existing upper limits on the power spectrum of pulsar timing residuals imply that the amplitude of vector longitudinal and scalar longitudinal modes at frequencies of 1/year are constrained: ${\cal A}_{\rm VL} < 4.1\times 10^{-16}$ and ${\cal A}_{\rm SL} < 3.7\times 10^{-17}$, while the bounds on the energy density for a scale invariant cosmological background are: $\Omega_{\rm VL}h^2 < 3.5 \times 10^{-11}$ and $\Omega_{\rm SL}h^2 < 3.2 \times 10^{-13}$.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

On the electron affinities of the Ca, Sc, Ti and Y atoms

For the Ca, Sc, Ti and Y atoms calculations are performed for the ground states of the neutrals and the ground and several low-lying excited states of the negative ions. Overall the computed electron affinities are in good accord with experiment. The calculations show the rapid stabilization of the 3d orbital relative to the 4p as the nuclear charge increases. The 3F(0) and 3D(0) terms are found to be close in energy in Sc(-) and in Y(-). This confirms earlier speculation that some of the peaks in the photodetachment spectra of Y(-) originate from the bound excited 3F(0) term of Y(-)

The 2D Rydberg series in Al I

High quality ab initio electonic structure calculations were performed on the 2D Rydberg series in Al I. The configuration 3s3p2(2D) is shown to contribute substantially to the lowest four 2D Rydberg states. The same configuration also contributes substantially to a 2D state embedded in the ionization continuum. Computed oscillator strengths for the first six members of the 2D Rydberg transitions are given: these should be of substantially high accuracy than currently available values

Theoretical study of the C-H bond dissociation energy of acetylene

The authors present a theoretical study of the convergence of the C-H bond dissociation energy (D sub o) of acetylene with respect to both the one- and n-particle spaces. Their best estimate for D sub o of 130.1 plus or minus 1.0 kcal/mole is slightly below previous theoretical estimates, but substantially above the value determined using Stark anticrossing spectroscopy that is asserted to be an upper bound